Issue link: http://viewer.e-digitaledition.com/i/82618
SPECIAL FEATURE the American Physician Shortage, Rethinking Its Challenges THE ASSOCIATION OF AMERICAN MEDICAL COLLEGES ESTIMATES THAT BY 2015, THE AMERICAN HEALTH CARE SYSTEM WILL COMPRISE 29,800 FEWER PRIMARY CARE PROVIDERS THE RESEARCH AND EDUCATION ARENAS AND OTHER COUNTRIES' HEALTH CARE INDUSTRIES CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEFICIT DISCUSSION, THE CONVERSATION BECOMES LESS ABOUT NUMBERS AND MORE ABOUT MODELS OF CARE DELIVERY. and Its Solutions T HE FIGURES ARE not even as straightforward as one might think. Clese Erickson, MPAF, Director of the Center for Workforce Studies, explains that forecasts of potential shortages are based on the current health care system, which is poised for significant change. Fluctuating THAN ARE NEEDED TO CARE FOR THE COUNTRY'S POPULATION. HOWEVER, AS VOICES FROM reform directives and greater emphasis on team-based care could increase the demand for physicians as individual practitioners spend less time with patients; however, the increased involvement of physician assistants, nurse practitioners and other providers could naturally fill the gaps in primary care. "There are strong incentives on a variety of fronts for changing how care is going to be delivered in the United States," says Erickson. "The train is in motion in very exciting ways. So much of it is unknown that we have to pay close attention to the new models of care, so we can better understand what they will mean in terms of the demand for services and new team members who need to be brought into the picture." The Issue of Distribution When considering the state of American health care, Des Gorman, M.D., Ph.D., Executive Chair of Health Workforce New Zealand, offers a unique perspective on the demand-versus-supply equation. The island nation is expected to experience a 100% growth in health care demand with only a 40% increase in the workforce providing that care in the next decade. While New Zealand is set to tackle a shortage of health care providers, the United States' dilemma seems to be less a reflection of fewer professionals entering medicine and more an indication that those same professionals are grouped disproportionately in subspecialty practices in large metropolitan centers. The trouble is, in fact, sociological. 16 | San Antonio MD NEWS ■ MDNEWS.COM