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L ower store traffic, a late start to the "official" season due to a Nov. 28 anksgiving and more consumers unlikely to act on their respective shopping lists until aer their ballots have been cast next month are all contributing factors to predictions that year-over-year sales growth for Holiday 2024 is likely to be in the 2 to 3.5 percent range. And that forecast does not consider potential impacts from a prolonged East and Gulf Coast port work stoppage that could impact product availability on key items. With the National Retail Federation not expected to release its annual Holiday sales forecast until later this month, seasonal prognostications were first detailed by other groups. e Boston Consulting Group expects 45 percent of consumers to maintain flat year-over-year spending during the holiday season with 28 percent purchasing more than in 2023 and 27 percent buying less. Gartner, Inc.'s outlook, meanwhile, predicts that 64 percent of shoppers will keep their shopping budget flat with 21 percent expected to rein in their spending this year. Deloitte is forecasting holiday sales to increase 2.3 to 3.3 percent between November and January to reach a revenue range of $1.58 to $1.59 trillion. e consulting and advisory firm sees inflation as both a headwind and tailwind to holiday sales. Rising credit card debt and the possibility that many consumers may have exhausted their pandemic period savings accounts may also weigh on seasonal sales growth. Adobe Analytics is forecasting an 8 percent increase in e-commerce spending by U.S. consumers this holiday seasons as more e-tailers launch early promotions and deals ahead of both Election Day and anksgiving Week. Discounting is expected to be more pronounced with prices on apparel offerings slashed by an estimated 23 percent. Total online holiday spending is forecast to reach a record $240.8 billion this year. Gartner research shows that U.S. consumers are concerned that in-store and online prices are not competitive. As such, 20 percent of its holiday survey respondents intend to increase their e-commerce spend during Holiday 2024. n HOLIDAY SPENDING EXPECTED TO BE UP MODERATELY AT BEST US HOLIDAY SEASON E-COMM SPEND BY YEAR IN DOLLAR BILLIONS Source: Adobe Analytics 142.5 2019 0 50 100 150 200 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 188.2 204.5 211.7 221.1 240.8 +13.0 +32.2 +8.6 +3.5 +4.9 +8.4 FORECAST 4 • September/October 2024 sportstyle • sportstylemag.com SALES FORECAST / JINGLE BELLS

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