Issue link: https://viewer.e-digitaledition.com/i/762897
A nxiety continues to roil through the pro-Israel world over a possible last-minute political move by the Obama administration that could permanently alter the Israeli- Palestinian geopolitical landscape. Forty-eight hours after the Nov. 8 election, I flew to South Florida for a series of lectures and briefings orga- nized by StandWithUs, NOVA Southeast University and other organizations as part of the State Department's International Education Week to analyze the prospects regarding relations with Israel in the last weeks of the Obama administration. Everywhere, audiences were on the edge of their seats asking whether President Obama would take extraordi- nary passive or active steps in the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) to recognize a Palestinian state or impose a peace settle- ment, including a territorial mandate following the lines of the 1948 truce. Unlike General Assembly resolutions, which are not binding, the UNSC generally creates lasting pillars of interna- tional law. As we approach Jan. 20, uncertainty continues to abound among even the most astute of political insiders. President Barack Obama remains personally silent. Administration assurances in recent days proffer comfort to those hanging on every word to discern a course of action. But embed- ded ambiguities in each of those assurances only increases the speculation. For example, in recent days, unnamed administration sources were quoted by the Associated Press suggesting that President Obama "has nearly ruled out any major last-ditch effort to put pres- sure on Israel over stalled peace negotiations with the Palestinians." The phrase "nearly ruled out" shines brightly in that report to emphasize that no decision has been made. A few days ago, America's ambassador to Israel, Dan Shapiro, told Israel's Army Radio that America "will always oppose one- sided initiatives," adding that this position "is a long-term policy. Whenever there were one-sided initiatives, we opposed them in the past and we will always oppose them." Skeptics note that "opposing" such a U.N. move is not the same as blocking it with a veto. Those who know the administration best remain queasy that a sudden and unexpected move may play out in the U.N. Security Council in coming weeks. Obama has circumvented Congress on the Iran nuclear deal and many other issues where he can unilaterally use his "phone and pen." The most likely scenarios for Obama action in the UNSC are variations of the following three: • First: unilateral recognition of a Palestinian state within speci- fied or approximate borders following the 1948 armistice lines where no Palestinian state ever existed. In virtually all world forums, this would more juridically move the status of Israel's administrative presence in Judea and Samaria from disputed to occupation. • Second: abstain from vetoing a pending French resolution that would impose settlement lines and/or recognize a Palestinian state within 18 months absent agreement by the parties. • Third: impose a territorial settlement within a two-year dead- line if the parties do not craft one themselves. Any of the three measures would subtract the need for negotia- tions and bring Israelis and Palestinians closer to an entrenched stalemate. The suspense has been intensified by developments in recent days. On Nov. 28, former president Jimmy Carter authored a passion- ate op-ed in the New York Times titled "America Must Recognize Palestine." Carter advised President Obama to exercise one final chance of "countering the one-state reality that Israel is imposing on itself and the Palestinian people." Carter has not been a lone voice but part of a chorus of Democratic voices urging such a move by Obama to thwart any Trump policy moves after Jan. 20, 2017. Trump is expected to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with Israel. On Dec. 1, President Obama once again signed a six- month extension of the presidential override preventing the implementation of the Congressional mandate moving the U.S. Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. President-elect Trump has promised to move the embassy. Since each presidential override binds the American gov- ernment for six months, the Trump administration could not move the embassy until the end of May 2017. Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas is fully aware of the dynamics and, as recently as a few days ago, confirmed that he continues to stay in close contact and coordination with the French government over its pending U.N. resolution. Abbas has repeatedly assured his people and the world that the U.N. would deliver independence in 2017. French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, speaking Dec. 1 in Paris alongside Irish Minister of Foreign Affairs Charlie Flanagan, reaffirmed that France was determined once more to convene an international peace conference before the end of 2016. If that conference is unsuccessful, France could unilaterally recognize Palestine — within what territorial lines remains unclear. Already, 88 American senators have written a pointed bipartisan letter to Obama warning him not to exercise a lame-duck effort at the U.N. On Nov. 29, the House of Representatives passed a nonbinding bipartisan bill urging President Obama to continue blocking any U.N. resolution that would unilaterally impose a one-sided peace, including by a failure to veto such a resolution in the U.N. Security Council. Until 11:59 a.m. on Jan. 20, 2017, no one knows whether President Obama will add another notch to his legacy or allow the future destiny of Israel and Palestinians to be written by others, including the parties themselves. * Edwin Black is the New York Times bestselling author of IBM and the Holocaust, Financing the Flames and The Farhud. He can be found at www.edwinblack.com. viewpoints » S e n d l e t t e r s t o : l e t t e r s @ t h e j e w i s h n e w s . c o m 6 December 15 • 2016 D E T R O I T J E W I S H N E W S theJEWISHNEWS.com To make a donation to the DE TROIT JEWISH NEWS FOUNDATION go to the website www.djnfounadtion.org Arthur M. Horwitz Publisher / Executive Editor ahorwitz@renmedia.us F. Kevin Browett Chief Operating Officer kbrowett@renmedia.us | Editorial Managing Editor: Jackie Headapohl jheadapohl@renmedia.us Story Development Editor: Keri Guten Cohen kcohen@thejewishnews.com Arts & Life Editor: Lynne Konstantin lkonstantin@renmedia.us Senior Copy Editor: David Sachs dsachs@renmedia.us Editorial Assistant: Sy Manello smanello@renmedia.us Senior Columnist: Danny Raskin dannyraskin@sbcglobal.net Contributing Editor: Robert Sklar rsklar@renmedia.us Contributing Writers: Ruthan Brodsky, Suzanne Chessler, Annabel Cohen, Don Cohen, Shari S. Cohen, Shelli Liebman Dorfman, Adam Finkel, Ryan Fishman, Stacy Gittleman, Judy Greenwald, Ronelle Grier, Esther Allweiss Ingber, Harry Kirsbaum, Barbara Lewis, Jennifer Lovy, Rabbi Jason Miller, Alan Muskovitz, Robin Schwartz, Steve Stein | Creative Services Corporate Creative Director: Deborah Schultz dschultz@renmedia.us | Advertising Sales Sales Director: Keith Farber kfarber@renmedia.us Account Executives: Kathryn Andros, Paul Biondi, Wendy Flusty, Annette Kizy, Paige Lustig Sales Manager Assistants: Andrea Gusho, Karen Marzolf | Business Offices Billing Coordinator: Pamela Turner Collections Analyst: Hazel Bender | Production By FARAGO & ASSOCIATES Manager: Scott Drzewiecki Designers: Amy Pollard, Pam Sherevan, Michelle Sheridan, Susan Walker | Detroit Jewish News Chairman: Michael H. Steinhardt President/Publisher: Arthur M. Horwitz ahorwitz@renmedia.us Chief Operating Officer: F. Kevin Browett kbrowett@renmedia.us Controller: Craig R. Phipps Corporate Creative Director: Deborah Schultz dschultz@renmedia.us | Fulfillment circulationdesk@thejewishnews.com | Departments General Offi ces: 248-354-6060 Advertising: 248-351-5107 Advertising Fax: 248-304-0049 Circulation: 248-351-5174 Classifi ed Ads: 248-351-5116 Advertising Deadline: Monday, 2 p.m. Editorial Fax: 248-304-8885 Deadline: All public and social announcements must be typewritten and received by noon Tuesday, nine days prior to desired date of publication. Subscriptions: 1 year . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $85 2 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $153 3 years . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $204 1 year out-of-state . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $125 2 years out-of-state . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $225 Per year foreign . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . $300 Detroit Jewish News 29200 Northwestern Highway, Suite 110 Southfi eld, MI 48034 ©copyright 2016 Detroit Jewish News Edwin Black commentary High Anxiety Continues Over Obama In The U.N.