Running Insight

A mom I know has a funny response when her kids ask her about the weather. "You want to know what the weather is, go outside. If it's cold, you need a jacket. If its cloudy, then it's probably going to rain. That's what the weather is." So, if we in the running business want to know what's coming, we should go outside, too. Here's the running forecast from my front porch... Business is showing signs of life. Big brands tell me their 4th quarter 2017 and Q1 Futures bookings are good. The numerous store closures of the past year have resulted in a cleaner market that should get even cleaner after the holidays. Fewer stores run by better opera- tors will make for a stronger, more profitable run specialty channel for the remaining stores. Brands are betting on this scenario, too. Most of the big footwear vendors have begun to focus their run specialty resources on a fewer number of stores. They've cut back on servicing stores that do less than $50,000 in annual sales and have reduced spending on tech reps and other programs that have long been standard in the channel. I have mixed feelings about some of these cutbacks. If I have a store that does $45,000 annually with Brand X and lose my rep, chances are damn slim that I'll ever grow my business to $75,000 to $100,000 a year. Also, if a run store owner wants to maintain a specialty mix of products and not just carry the same brands and shoes as the big boxes, he or she needs to carry some challenger brands, even if it's just one or two shoes. That means the buy could be as small as $10,000 a year. And while that's important for both the store and the challenger brand, it will be tough for those vendors to service a bunch of $10,000 accounts and make money doing so. The industry is hungry for leadership. If a brand or two break out of the pack with great product or business practices that can benefit the channel, others will step up their game and give a good chase. In a race, leaders set the pace. In our business it's no different. Our industry has seen a lot of great leadership over the past decade and the entire category has benefitted. We're seeing early indicators of this again and that is a good sign for our business. Finally (and this is more a statement of the new business reality than a forecast), the business has grown and evolved and many of the old rules and rivalries no longer apply. I respect that running store owners love to compete, and if that's the case they have chosen the right profession. Because the competition is everywhere: online, down the block, at the mall and sometimes from their own suppliers. If you want to be successful, you have to work through it. That may mean altering your merchandise mix, selling more apparel and accessories and changing the way you sell and deliver product to your shoppers. When I look out from my porch, I see a lot of good retailers being smart and creative and thriving in the process. They are creating their own good weather and that's a wonderful sight to see. n Running Industry Weather Report 10 runninginsight.com © 2017 Formula4media LLC. Mark Sullivan Editor-in-Chief

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